Splits Based on Opponent’s Defensive Rank
In this study, I focused on the game logs of the 9 QB prospects that I plan to study on tape. These are: Joe Burrow, Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, Anthony Gordon, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Shea Patterson, and Tua Tagovailoa. I split up their numbers based on the rank of the opponent’s defense (in terms of points allowed per game). The cutoffs used are defenses ranked: 1-30, 31-75, 76+ (lower number = better defense).
Some of the main takeaways that I had are:
- Joe Burrow was outstanding across all levels of competition and Jalen Hurts was pretty good as well.
- Nobody faced more top 30 defenses than Jake Fromm, who had the 3rd best TD/TO ratio, but middling numbers otherwise in those games.
- Justin Herbert sometimes gets knocked for being inconsistent/not rising to the moment, but he was good against top 30 defenses this year, ranking 2nd in terms of TD/TO ratio and 3rd in QBR.
- Anthony Gordon put up 4 TDs to 6 TOs against elite defenses (1 of 2 prospects with a negative ratio against the elite), but 41 TDs to 10 TOs against the rest.
- Tua Tagovailoa did not have a negative TD/TO ratio against the elite, but pretty close: 4/3 against the elite defenses versus 31/1 against the rest.
- Jacob Eason faced the easiest slate of games, but he performed well against the two top-30 defenses he faced.
- Jordan Love faced a tougher slate of opponents than one might expect, with the 4th toughest average opponent. However, he struggled in those games against top-75 defenses with a TD/TO ratio of 5/12
- On average, nobody faced a tougher schedule than Shea Patterson, who played very well against the above average defenses but struggled against the elite.
PFF QB Metrics
Below, I’ve organized the PFF metrics for the 9 QBs that I plan on studying and color-coded (green = good, red = bad). Thanks to ProFootballFocus for the outstanding work in their draft guides.
Some takeaways:
- Not exactly surprising, but Joe Burrow absolutely dominates these numbers after having one of the best collegiate seasons we’ll ever see.
- If you cut Joe Burrow out of the picture, the differences between the other prospects become more apparent.
- Jalen Hurts and Jake Fromm seem to be the big winners here. In particular, Fromm’s ratio of big-time throws vs. turnover-worth throws is very impressive. Hurts’ passing metrics are outstanding, though I think this is largely due to Lincoln Riley’s outstanding schemes.
- Excluding Burrow, Jacob Eason is #1 in grade with no pressure but is 2nd worst against pressure. This matches the film; his footwork is pretty bad in general but particularly bad when pressure gets to him and he struggles more than anyone else in terms of evading pressure and resetting.
- Tua’s metrics are surprisingly average across the board; I would have expected him to be up there with Burrow or at least up there with Jalen Hurts and Fromm.